Many people are naturally concerned about the weather. Weather conditions have a major impact on our everyday lives and affect how both businesses and people plan their activities. Weather forecasting and climate prediction are important factors for many forms of risk assessment and emergency preparedness. The models used for weather forecasting and climate prediction are becoming increasingly accurate. This means that important information about weather conditions can be provided faster and with a greater degree of certainty.
Climate prediction involves compiling information on the probability of various weather events for periods of months or years into the future. For example, predictions can be made of the probability that the coming summer will be wet and cold, or dry and hot. The probability of certain temperature conditions in the ocean can also be predicted over periods of several years. Water temperature has a major impact on marine life, and temperature predictions are an important basis for estimating the development of various fish stocks.
Our researchers collaborate with colleagues at the University of Bergen and NORCE on the development of climate predictions for longer periods ahead. The use of the Norwegian Climate Prediction Model (NorCPM) is central to the production of these predictions. This model is used to produce predictions that are used for a number of purposes, including by the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO), which publishes an annual report indicating climate developments for the coming five-year period.
This year’s report from the WMO was presented on the 5th of June and shows that we can expect new heat records in the future. Last year was the warmest ever measured. The report states that in the period 2024-2028 there is an 86 % chance that new temperature records will be set, and as much as an 80 % chance that the temperature increase will exceed 1.5 degrees of warming – which was the climate target in the Paris Agreement.
Recent predictions show the likelihood of a warmer than normal summer in Europe, while La Niña (the cold cousin of El Niño) is developing over the Pacific Ocean. These events will affect the weather in many parts of the world, especially in countries that border the Pacific Ocean or are located in tropical regions.
There is a great deal of uncertainty about the accuracy of such long-term predictions. Substantial research resources are invested in developing the computational models so that the probability of different types of weather and climate can be predicted with an increasingly high degree of accuracy. This work is dependent on the use of good observational data, the development of good models that can calculate how various factors affect climate change, and not least on skilled professionals.
A large number of international climate experts recently gathered in Bergen for a working meeting on the development of climate forecasting and services. “Improving the models and understanding the underlying processes is the key to greater accuracy in long-term climate predictions. This field of research is becoming increasingly important, and the Bergen-based research community working in this area has established itself as a leading force on an international scale.
If you have questions about climate modelling, contact Research Leader and Senior Researcher François Counillon.
