Sea levels along the Norwegian coast could rise by up to one meter by 2100, and the risk of extreme weather, floods, and landslides is increasing.
This is stated in the new national knowledge report Climate in Norway – Knowledge Base for Climate Adaptation (2025), prepared by researchers from eleven Norwegian institutions. Several of the contributions come from the Nansen Center, which has played a key role in the work on sea level and climate prediction.
Read the report here.
The report Climate in Norway was commissioned by the Norwegian Environment Agency and provides an overview of how the climate is expected to change in Norway and neighboring areas over the next few decades. It is based on analyses of both observations and various models. By combining historical data with future scenarios, researchers provide a picture of the climate risks society must prepare for. These include an increased risk of extreme weather, sea-level changes, landslides, and changes in precipitation patterns. Such insights are crucial for the development of effective climate adaptation strategies, both locally and nationally.
Sea level, waves, and the future coastal climate
The Nansen Center has contributed to the report with assessments of sea-level developments along the Norwegian coast, based on both remote sensing and in-situ measurements. The Center’s specialised expertise in satellite data has been central to the work of observing and understanding sea-level changes. In collaboration with partners, the report also analyses how ocean waves influence sea level, and how storm surges and wave conditions may change in the coming decades and centuries. The report concludes that if global climate emissions are not reduced, sea levels along the coast could rise by several decimeters by 2100, and in the worst case, by more than one meter. Local differences will occur due to geographical variations, and the consequences for coastal communities, infrastructure, and emergency preparedness could be significant.
Climate prediction: Status and opportunities
In addition to the work on sea level, the Nansen Center has contributed to a chapter on climate prediction. Here, researchers summarise the current state of climate prediction in Norway, for instance, that one can predict temperature anomaly several years ahead, but also describe the existing limitations, and where there is room for improvement. One important area of development is the ability to improve predictions of climate changes on shorter timescales, building a seamless prediction system that serves from beyond weather forecasts to several decades away. The chapter also explains why it is actually possible to predict climate in the longer term, and the key role the ocean plays in this work, as demonstrated with the Norwegian Climate Prediction Model co-developed at the Nansen Center.
“Using climate prediction can help society to be better prepared for the changes that are coming – both natural fluctuations in the climate and the risks that are increasing due to global warming. If researchers and society can work together to further develop climate predictions, society can be even better equipped for what is to come,” says Helene R. Langehaug, senior researcher and co-author of the climate prediction chapter.
The report Climate in Norway provides a solid and up-to-date knowledge base for addressing climate challenges in Norway. Contributions from the Nansen Center, in the areas of sea level and climate prediction, show how research-based insights can contribute to better understanding and planning. When the climate is changing rapidly, it is crucial that society has access to accurate and relevant information. This report is an important tool for decision-makers, professional communities, and local communities that need to prepare for the future.
Key researchers: Antonio Bonaduce, François Counillon, Helene R. Langehaug
