Sea ice in the Arctic has decreased significantly in recent decades. In fact, the Arctic Ocean is expected to be ice-free in summer by the end of this century. This drastic decline has opened up large areas of ocean that are more affected by wind, which in turn leads to greater wave activity. This creates an interaction with the sea ice. The question is to what extent this will affect sea ice extent .
Forecasting future conditions is becoming increasingly important. Waves are generated in the open ocean, but can propagate into the marginal ice zone, which is the transition area between open ocean and solid ice. This zone is dominated by ice floes of various sizes, floating on the ocean surface. When the waves reach the marginal ice zone, large ice floes break down into smaller pieces. Smaller chunks melt faster than large ones, causing the sea ice to disappear more quickly. More open ocean area would mean more waves, and therefore more melting: This may create a positive feedback loop that could accelerate the disappearance of sea ice.
Because waves have a major impact on the sea ice, it is important to include wave activity in sea ice forecasts. Researchers at the Nansen Center have special expertise in how waves propagate into the sea ice and the impact it has. Work is ongoing on how these processes can be included in sea-ice models to provide better and more accurate predictions.
Through the “Young Research Talents” project “ForWArd”, researchers at the Nansen Center are working on predicting the impact on waves on the diminishing sea ice in the Artic. Project leader Guillaume Boutin and his colleagues are using the center’s sea ice model, neXtSIM, in combination with a wave model to create a more realistic representation of the interaction between waves and ice. This enables a two-way interaction between waves and sea ice and is a unique approach that can provide more reliable predictions in the future. The project will analyse changes in the Arctic Ocean over the past 30 years and will predict what might happen over the coming 50 years.
Through the ForWArd project, we hope to understand the extent to which waves affect sea ice in the Arctc, and how this impact will develop over time. This is important knowledge for predicting future changes in the Arctic. Reliable predictions are crucial for ship traffic and other activities in and near the marginal ice zone.
Nøkkelforskere: Guillaume Boutin, Timothy Williams, Richard Davy, Heather Regan
