The new report “Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update 2026–2035”, published by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), is based on climate predictions from leading research institutions around the world. An important part of the scientific foundation comes from the Norwegian Climate Prediction Model, NorCPM, which the Nansen Center has played a central role in developing.
The report provides updated assessments of how the climate may evolve over the next five to ten years and is used by meteorological services, public authorities and research communities internationally. While the main findings have already received broad media attention, the models underpinning these results represent a crucial, though less visible, foundation for this type of climate prediction.
Climate predictions from years to decades ahead
NorCPM is designed to provide climate predictions on time scales that sit between traditional weather forecasts, which cover weeks, and long-term climate projections extending over several decades. The model combines observations with advanced climate modelling and can predict the likely development of temperature, ocean conditions, sea ice and precipitation from months to many years ahead. NorCPM is developed and used by researchers at the Nansen Center, in close collaboration with partners in the Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, including the University of Bergen, NORCE, and the Institute of Marine Research.
“I find it very positive that these reports are improving year by year, and that they help the public better grasp the uncertainties associated with internal variability in the near-term climate. In particular, the way results are presented, the choice of metrics, and the quantification of uncertainty have all improved. Much of this year’s outlook is influenced by El Niño, which significantly increases the likelihood of breaking new records. From next year onward, most prediction systems will be upgraded to their CMIP7 versions, representing roughly a five-year leap in model development,” says François Counillon, Research Director at the Nansen Center.
High confidence in the predictions
A key strength of the WMO updates is that the climate models used are systematically tested against past climate observations. For predictions of global temperature development, these evaluations show a high level of accuracy, providing strong confidence in the predictions on which the report is based.
Through NorCPM, the Nansen Center contributes to the international knowledge base that helps society better understand and manage future climate change.
Key researchers: François Counillon, Yiguo Wang, Noel Keenlyside
