As global temperatures rise, glaciers around the world are melting faster, including in Greenland. More icebergs are breaking off from glaciers along the coast and can drift hundreds of kilometers before they melt and disappear. At the same time, shipping traffic in the same areas is increasing as a result of new transportation routes, easier access to resources, more tourism and geopolitical tensions. In a new project, researchers at the Nansen Center have used satellite data and modeling to develop iceberg forecasts for safer navigation in these waters.
In July 2024, a large iceberg measuring 4 x 2 kilometers broke away from the coast of East Greenland. Researchers followed the iceberg for several weeks until it broke up into smaller pieces just over a month later. Using satellite images and advanced data on weather and sea conditions, we were able to track the iceberg’s journey and predict the direction in which it would continue to drift.
“In the “Icebergs Monitoring and Forecasting” research project, we used simple but precise tools,” says researcher Mohamed Babiker. “The movement of the iceberg is controlled by ocean currents, wind and its shape and size. All this can be modeled using data obtained via the Copernicus services.”
The project uses data from three different sources: satellite images, wind data from climate archives and model calculations of ocean currents. The different data are combined in the OpenBerg calculation model, which was developed in collaboration between the Norwegian Meteorological Institute and the Nansen Center. The Danish Meteorological Institute is the service provider for Greenland and nearby areas and is therefore an important player in the project.
“There is little reliable data on icebergs, so artificial intelligence is not relevant here,” explains senior researcher Laurent Bertino. “Instead, we rely on physical laws and observational data.”
Tests show that the system has great potential for use by meteorological institutes, coastguards, shipping and cruise tourism in the Arctic. The aim is to help make travel safer in areas with icebergs – and to communicate knowledge about developments in the rapidly changing Arctic.
“We’re now working on the next phase of the project, which will be tested in the waters near Svalbard,” says Babiker. “In the long term, users will be able to order specific alerts about further developments if they discover an iceberg drifting.”
This type of monitoring is important both for safety and to increase our understanding of climate change. Every iceberg that breaks off and melts provides valuable information about the rapid changes taking place in the Arctic.
Key researchers: Mohamed Babiker, Laurent Bertino, Achref Othmani, Adrien Perrin
