“Understanding the Influence of Danube and Bosphorus Water Budget Uncertainty on Black Sea Predictions: An Investigation using Ensemble Experiments”
This project investigates the impact of uncertainty in Danube runoff and Bosphorus water exchange on the physical dynamics of the Black Sea. The Black Sea is characterized by strong vertical stratification, driven by the salinity difference between Mediterranean inflow through the Bosphorus and freshwater input from river estuaries. Understanding the influence of the freshwater balance and how its uncertainty propagates through the system is crucial for improving knowledge of Black Sea stratification and circulation dynamics. Ensemble experiments based on the NEMO oceanographic model will be used to quantify the propagation and evolution of the uncertainty. This study also represents a first step toward developing an ensemble forecasting system aimed at enhancing the current Black Sea Physics Analysis and Forecast of the Copernicus Marine Service. By providing probabilistic information, this system will improve predictive capabilities and support end-user applications. The presentation will outline the project’s objectives, introduce the Danube runoff perturbation scheme, and present preliminary results on its impact.
