{"id":9229,"date":"2026-06-04T13:32:08","date_gmt":"2026-06-04T11:32:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/nersc.no\/?p=9229"},"modified":"2026-06-04T13:32:35","modified_gmt":"2026-06-04T11:32:35","slug":"the-nansen-center-contributes-to-climate-predictions-for-the-next-decade","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/nersc.no\/en\/features\/the-nansen-center-contributes-to-climate-predictions-for-the-next-decade\/","title":{"rendered":"The Nansen Center contributes to climate predictions for the next decade"},"content":{"rendered":"

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<\/div>[\/vc_column][\/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column width=”2\/3″ css=”.vc_custom_1693479579188{background-color: #ffffff !important;}”]

The Nansen Center contributes to climate predictions for the next decade<\/h1><\/div>[vc_column_text css=””]The new report <\/strong>\u201cGlobal Annual to Decadal Climate Update 2026\u20132035\u201d<\/strong><\/a><\/em><\/span>, published by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), is based on climate predictions from leading research institutions around the world. An important part of the scientific foundation comes from the Norwegian Climate Prediction Model, NorCPM, which the Nansen Center has played a central role in developing.<\/strong><\/p>\n

The report provides updated assessments of how the climate may evolve over the next five to ten years and is used by meteorological services, public authorities and research communities internationally. While the main findings have already received broad media attention, the models underpinning these results represent a crucial, though less visible, foundation for this type of climate prediction.<\/p>\n

Climate predictions from years to decades ahead
\n<\/strong>NorCPM is designed to provide climate predictions on time scales that sit between traditional weather forecasts, which cover weeks, and long-term climate projections extending over several decades. The model combines observations with advanced climate modelling and can predict the likely development of temperature, ocean conditions, sea ice and precipitation from months to many years ahead. NorCPM is developed and used by researchers at the Nansen Center, in close collaboration with partners in the Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, including the University of Bergen, NORCE, and the Institute of Marine Research.<\/p>\n

\u201cI find it very positive that these reports are improving year by year, and that they help the public better grasp the uncertainties associated with internal variability in the near-term climate. In particular, the way results are presented, the choice of metrics, and the quantification of uncertainty have all improved. Much of this year\u2019s outlook is influenced by El\u202fNi\u00f1o, which significantly increases the likelihood of breaking new records. From next year onward, most prediction systems will be upgraded to their CMIP7 versions, representing roughly a five-year leap in model development,\u201d says Fran\u00e7ois Counillon, Research Director at the Nansen Center.<\/p>\n

High confidence in the predictions
\n<\/strong>A key strength of the WMO updates is that the climate models used are systematically tested against past climate observations. For predictions of global temperature development, these evaluations show a high level of accuracy, providing strong confidence in the predictions on which the report is based.
\nThrough NorCPM, the Nansen Center contributes to the international knowledge base that helps society better understand and manage future climate change.<\/p>\n

Key researchers:<\/strong> Fran\u00e7ois Counillon<\/span><\/a>, Yiguo Wang<\/span><\/a>, Noel Keenlyside<\/span><\/a>[\/vc_column_text][\/vc_column][vc_column width=”1\/3″ css=”.vc_custom_1695033709348{padding-right: 0px !important;}”]

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The WMO reports<\/strong><\/h3>\n

The World Meteorological Organization issues annual updates on expected climate developments over the coming five to ten years.
\nRead this year\u2019s report: “Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update 2026\u20132035”<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n

Find previous reports here<\/span><\/a>.<\/p><\/div>

\n

A Norwegian contribution to global climate prediction<\/strong><\/h3>\n

NorCPM is a climate prediction model developed in Norway, specifically designed for seasonal to decadal prediction, from months to years ahead. The model combines observations, such as satellite data and ocean measurements, with dynamic climate models using advanced data assimilation methods.<\/p>\n

NorCPM is actively used in research to assess climate risk and societal impacts, including its contribution to the WMO report.<\/p><\/div>

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Three key messages from this year’s report<\/strong><\/h3>\n
    \n
  • Global warming continues, with a high likelihood of new record years<\/li>\n
  • The Arctic is warming fastest, and sea ice continues to decline<\/li>\n
  • Climate change is amplifying existing contrasts in global precipitation patterns<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>[\/vc_column][\/vc_row]<\/p>\n<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

    [vc_row][vc_column][\/vc_column][\/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column width=”2\/3″ css=”.vc_custom_1693479579188{background-color: #ffffff !important;}”][vc_column_text css=””]The new report \u201cGlobal Annual to Decadal Climate Update 2026\u20132035\u201d, published by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), is based on climate predictions from leading research institutions around the world. An important part of the scientific foundation comes from the Norwegian Climate Prediction Model, NorCPM, which the Nansen Center has played […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":9231,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_relevanssi_hide_post":"","_relevanssi_hide_content":"","_relevanssi_pin_for_all":"","_relevanssi_pin_keywords":"","_relevanssi_unpin_keywords":"","_relevanssi_related_keywords":"","_relevanssi_related_include_ids":"","_relevanssi_related_exclude_ids":"","_relevanssi_related_no_append":"","_relevanssi_related_not_related":"","_relevanssi_related_posts":"","_relevanssi_noindex_reason":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[80],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-9229","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-features"],"acf":[],"publishpress_future_action":{"enabled":false,"date":"2026-06-11 23:02:14","action":"change-status","newStatus":"draft","terms":[],"taxonomy":"category","extraData":[]},"publishpress_future_workflow_manual_trigger":{"enabledWorkflows":[]},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/nersc.no\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9229","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/nersc.no\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/nersc.no\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nersc.no\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nersc.no\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=9229"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/nersc.no\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9229\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":9236,"href":"https:\/\/nersc.no\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9229\/revisions\/9236"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nersc.no\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/9231"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/nersc.no\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=9229"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nersc.no\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=9229"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nersc.no\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=9229"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}