{"id":4296,"date":"2023-05-26T09:00:03","date_gmt":"2023-05-26T07:00:03","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/nersc.no\/?p=4296"},"modified":"2023-11-22T09:25:12","modified_gmt":"2023-11-22T08:25:12","slug":"global-temperatures-predicted-to-reach-new-extremes-in-the-next-five-years","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/nersc.no\/en\/features\/global-temperatures-predicted-to-reach-new-extremes-in-the-next-five-years\/","title":{"rendered":"Global temperatures predicted to reach new extremes in the next five years"},"content":{"rendered":"

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Global temperatures predicted to reach new extremes in the next five years<\/h1><\/div>[vc_column_text]<\/p>\n

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Last week, this year\u2019s\u00a0WMO Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update<\/a> by the World Meteorological Organization was released.\u00a0<\/strong><\/h3>\n

Fran\u00e7ois Counillon, one of the Nansen Center researchers on the NorCPM team: \u201cThis WMO climate prediction initiative has a great societal impact because it informs on the near future climate and accounts for both natural variability and the response to climate change. Such a coordinated experiment allows us to better quantify uncertainty in our forecast.\u201d<\/p>\n

According to the latest update, global temperatures are predicted to continue to rise. The coming five years (2023-2027) are the subject of investigation, and record highs for air temperatures are on the horizon.<\/p>\n

We will, with a 66 % likelihood, see the annual average near-surface global temperatures rise over the 1.5 \u00b0C threshold compared to pre-industrial levels, at least in one of the coming five years. The pre-industrial average is defined as the global temperature during 1850-1900, before human and industrial activities began releasing greenhouse gases into the atmosphere.<\/p>\n

With a 98 % likelihood, at least one of the coming five years will be the warmest on record, beating the extreme temperatures from 2016, which were partly caused by a very strong El Ni\u00f1o event. The latest update by the WMO also forecasts the development of another El Ni\u00f1o event throughout this year. El Ni\u00f1o is a weather phenomenon that causes an increase in global temperatures the year after it develops \u2013 2024 is therefore a candidate to break the 2016 temperature records.[\/vc_column_text][\/vc_column][vc_column width=”1\/3″ css=”.vc_custom_1695033709348{padding-right: 0px !important;}”]

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WMO Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update<\/h1>\n

Les rapporten\"Pil<\/a><\/p><\/div>

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Hvem st\u00e5r bak rapporten?<\/h1>\n

“WMO Lead Center for Annual-to-Decadal Climate Prediction” samler inn og gir hindcasts, prognoser og verifiseringsdata fra en rekke bidragende sentre over hele verden.<\/p>

WMO Lead Centre for Annual-to-Decadal Climate Prediction\"Pil<\/a><\/p><\/div>

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Nansensenterets rolle<\/h1>\n

Nansensenteret bidrar til disse oppdateringene ved \u00e5 kj\u00f8re klimavarsler med NorCPM, den norske klimaprediksjonsmodellen. Dette skjer gjennom samarbeidet i Bjerknes Climate Prediction Unit.<\/p>

Bjerknes Climate Prediction Unit\"Pil<\/a><\/p><\/div>[\/vc_column][\/vc_row]<\/p>\n<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

[vc_row][vc_column width=”2\/3″ css=”.vc_custom_1693479579188{background-color: #ffffff !important;}”][vc_column_text] Last week, this year\u2019s\u00a0WMO Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update by the World Meteorological Organization was released.\u00a0 Fran\u00e7ois Counillon, one of the Nansen Center researchers on the NorCPM team: \u201cThis WMO climate prediction initiative has a great societal impact because it informs on the near future climate and accounts for […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":1690,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_relevanssi_hide_post":"","_relevanssi_hide_content":"","_relevanssi_pin_for_all":"","_relevanssi_pin_keywords":"","_relevanssi_unpin_keywords":"","_relevanssi_related_keywords":"","_relevanssi_related_include_ids":"","_relevanssi_related_exclude_ids":"","_relevanssi_related_no_append":"","_relevanssi_related_not_related":"","_relevanssi_related_posts":"","_relevanssi_noindex_reason":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[80],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-4296","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-features"],"acf":[],"publishpress_future_action":{"enabled":false,"date":"2026-05-08 10:41:05","action":"change-status","newStatus":"draft","terms":[],"taxonomy":"category","extraData":[]},"publishpress_future_workflow_manual_trigger":{"enabledWorkflows":[]},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/nersc.no\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4296","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/nersc.no\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/nersc.no\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nersc.no\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nersc.no\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=4296"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/nersc.no\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4296\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":5968,"href":"https:\/\/nersc.no\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4296\/revisions\/5968"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nersc.no\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/1690"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/nersc.no\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=4296"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nersc.no\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=4296"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nersc.no\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=4296"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}