{"id":4281,"date":"2023-07-07T09:00:14","date_gmt":"2023-07-07T07:00:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/nersc.no\/?p=4281"},"modified":"2023-11-22T09:21:54","modified_gmt":"2023-11-22T08:21:54","slug":"surprising-findings-on-the-future-of-warming-in-the-arctic","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/nersc.no\/en\/features\/surprising-findings-on-the-future-of-warming-in-the-arctic\/","title":{"rendered":"Surprising findings on the future of warming in the Arctic"},"content":{"rendered":"

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Surprising findings on the future of warming in the Arctic<\/h1><\/div>[vc_column_text]<\/p>\n

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The Arctic has been warming rapidly, and Richard Davy from the Nansen Center and Philipp Griewank from the University of Vienna set out to find out how this trend will change throughout this century.\u00a0 <\/strong><\/h3>\n

Surveying the Earth\u2019s climate, especially in the Arctic region, from space has been possible since 1979. Thanks to satellites we have continuous observations that show the Arctic has been warming at almost four times the global average. This phenomenon is called Arctic amplification. The amplified warming in the Arctic has already impacted the environment in the region, affecting people living, working, and operating there. There is also evidence for the warming having begun to affect winter weather further south, for example in Europe, Canada, and the USA. Its impacts reach wide, and knowing what will happen in the future is important on multiple levels.<\/p>\n

Arctic amplification is closely tied to what happens to the sea ice in the region. Higher temperatures in the Arctic melt the sea ice faster, and reductions in sea ice further increase the temperatures in turn, creating a feedback loop. So, what changes in Arctic amplification can we expect to see in the future, considering that the Arctic is predicted to be ice-free during summers by the 2040\u2019s?<\/p>\n

The current consensus is that with retreating and thinning summer ice, and the shift to an ice cover only present in the winter months, the Arctic amplification will weaken, as many processes contributing to it will themselves likely weaken with less sea ice present. Richard Davy and Philipp Griewank studied when we can expect slower rates of warming, and they found out something surprising in their\u00a0new article<\/a>:\u00a0We have already passed the peak in the region \u2013 in the early 2000\u2019s!<\/strong><\/p>\n

During that time, a maximum in loss of sea-ice area, thickness, and volume occurred. Richard Davy on how the future of Arctic amplification looks like, according to their findings:\u00a0\u201cIt is highly unlikely that we will see the same amplified warming \u2013 four times higher than the global rate \u2013 in the Arctic again in this century.\u201d \u00a0<\/strong>Warming will continue, but at a slowed down rate. The fact that the peak is already passed, and that Arctic amplification is slowing down is a clear sign of how much the Arctic has already been changed, especially with respect to the sea ice.[\/vc_column_text][\/vc_column][vc_column width=”1\/3″ css=”.vc_custom_1695033709348{padding-right: 0px !important;}”]

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Hva er arktisk forsterkning?<\/h1>\n

H\u00f8yere temperaturer i Arktis smelter sj\u00f8isen raskere og reduksjoner i sj\u00f8is f\u00f8rer til at temperaturene \u00f8ker ytterligere. Dette skaper en tilbakemeldingssl\u00f8yfe. Prosessen blir betegnet som arktisk forsterkning og den er n\u00e6rt knyttet til hva som skjer med sj\u00f8isen i regionen. S\u00e5 hvilke endringer i arktisk forsterkning kan vi forvente \u00e5 se i fremtiden, med tanke p\u00e5 at Arktis er sp\u00e5dd \u00e5 v\u00e6re isfritt om sommeren innen 2040-tallet?<\/p><\/div>

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Publikasjon<\/h1>\n

Environmental Research Letters:<\/strong>
\n“Arctic amplification has already peaked”<\/p>

Les artikkelen\"Pil<\/a><\/p><\/div>[\/vc_column][\/vc_row]<\/p>\n<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

[vc_row][vc_column width=”2\/3″ css=”.vc_custom_1693479579188{background-color: #ffffff !important;}”][vc_column_text] The Arctic has been warming rapidly, and Richard Davy from the Nansen Center and Philipp Griewank from the University of Vienna set out to find out how this trend will change throughout this century.\u00a0 Surveying the Earth\u2019s climate, especially in the Arctic region, from space has been possible since 1979. […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":1792,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_relevanssi_hide_post":"","_relevanssi_hide_content":"","_relevanssi_pin_for_all":"","_relevanssi_pin_keywords":"","_relevanssi_unpin_keywords":"","_relevanssi_related_keywords":"","_relevanssi_related_include_ids":"","_relevanssi_related_exclude_ids":"","_relevanssi_related_no_append":"","_relevanssi_related_not_related":"","_relevanssi_related_posts":"","_relevanssi_noindex_reason":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[80],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-4281","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-features"],"acf":[],"publishpress_future_action":{"enabled":false,"date":"2026-04-28 10:52:05","action":"change-status","newStatus":"draft","terms":[],"taxonomy":"category","extraData":[]},"publishpress_future_workflow_manual_trigger":{"enabledWorkflows":[]},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/nersc.no\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4281","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/nersc.no\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/nersc.no\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nersc.no\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nersc.no\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=4281"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/nersc.no\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4281\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":5960,"href":"https:\/\/nersc.no\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4281\/revisions\/5960"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nersc.no\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/1792"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/nersc.no\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=4281"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nersc.no\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=4281"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nersc.no\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=4281"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}